Person reviewing a household budget with calculator and documents

Inflation Is Still Running at 3.7%: What to Watch Before the October CPI Report


The next major inflation update is only days away. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the October 2026 Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Until that report arrives, the latest official reading remains September’s: consumer prices rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the previous 12 months.

WIC shopper placing bagged fresh produce into a grocery cart in North Charleston, South Carolina
A shopper places fresh produce in a grocery cart in North Charleston, South Carolina. Photo: USDA Food and Nutrition Service, February 2025; public domain.

The September increase was not evenly spread across the economy. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% during the month and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the all-items index. The broader energy index rose 5.2%. Shelter costs increased 0.4%, while food prices were unchanged overall; food at home declined slightly, while food away from home increased.

Why one inflation number can hide different experiences

Pay-at-the-pump gasoline dispenser in Indiana
A gasoline pump in Indiana photographed during the 2005 fuel-price spike after Hurricane Katrina. Photo: Derek Jensen (Tysto), public domain. Gasoline was a major driver of September 2026’s monthly CPI increase.
September 2026 CPI measureMonthly change12-month change
All items+0.6%+3.7%
Core CPI (less food and energy)+0.3%+2.6%
Energy+5.2%—
Gasoline+9.1%—
Shelter+0.4%+3.2%
Food, all items0.0%—
September figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dashes indicate figures not listed in the summary above.

The CPI measures average price changes across a broad basket of goods and services purchased by urban consumers. It is a useful national indicator, but it does not describe every household’s budget. A driver who commutes long distances may feel a gasoline increase more sharply than someone who works remotely. A renter may be more sensitive to shelter costs, while a family with children may devote a larger share of income to groceries and childcare.

The September report also showed that the CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% during the month and 2.6% over the year. That measure, often called core CPI, helps analysts look beyond volatile food and energy movements. It is not a perfect measure of the cost of living, but it can reveal whether price increases are spreading more broadly.

What the October report could clarify

WIC shopper scanning approved foods at a grocery-store self-checkout in Seattle
A shopper scans approved foods at a grocery-store self-checkout in Seattle. Photo: USDA Food and Nutrition Service, September 2024; public domain.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
The BLS release calendar confirms the October CPI report is scheduled for November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Open the original video or source

The October release will show whether the September jump was followed by a calmer month or whether price pressure remained broad. Investors and policymakers will pay close attention to shelter, services, food, energy and the core index. A single monthly report will not determine the Federal Reserve’s next move, but it can influence expectations about interest rates, borrowing costs and the timing of any future policy changes.

For households, the practical question is whether prices are rising faster or slower than income. The October jobs report showed average hourly earnings were 3.1% higher than a year earlier, while September CPI inflation was 3.7%. Those measures cover different periods and are not a complete calculation of real wages for every worker, but they illustrate why people can receive a raise and still feel squeezed by everyday expenses.

How to prepare without guessing the report

WIC shopper checking a paper receipt after an EBT transaction at a grocery store
A shopper checks a receipt after an EBT transaction at a Seattle grocery store. Photo: USDA Food and Nutrition Service, September 2024; public domain.
  • Review the categories that actually dominate your budget rather than reacting to the national headline alone.
  • Compare current grocery, fuel, rent, insurance and utility costs with your own records from earlier months.
  • Avoid making major borrowing decisions based on a single inflation forecast or social-media prediction.
  • If you are shopping for a loan, compare the full annual percentage rate, fees and repayment schedule—not just the advertised monthly payment.

Consumers should also remember that prices do not automatically fall when inflation slows. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly; it does not necessarily mean they are returning to their earlier levels. That distinction is why a lower inflation rate can still leave households feeling that life is expensive.

The bottom line

Grocery store staff member packing items from an online order into bags near checkout
A grocery-store employee packs items from an online order near checkout in Seattle. Photo: USDA Food and Nutrition Service, September 2024; public domain.

The latest official CPI showed annual inflation at 3.7%, with gasoline responsible for a large share of September’s monthly increase. The October report, due November 10, will help determine whether that pressure eased or spread into other categories. Until the data arrive, the responsible approach is to separate confirmed figures from forecasts and focus on the prices that affect each household most directly.

Sources and further reading

Open book, laptop and handwritten research notes arranged on a desk
Research materials and notes used to verify information. Photo by Yen Vu on Unsplash.

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